I just can't leave well enough alone, where Dayn Perry is concerned. Most of the points the Fox Sports baseball analyst makes to justify his assessment of the 2006 Indians are at least arguable. Some are perfectly legit, while others seem to me uninformed or otherwise dubious. For example, Jhonny Peralta may in fact "regress" in 2006, even though Perry gives not a whiff of a rationale for why this might happen. But there is another statement from the Indians segment of his AL Central Preview that is so detached from reality as to be comical. We are told that one reason for his projection that the Tribe will disappoint in 2006 is that...
"...Ronnie Belliard's pattern of decline will continue"
Whah?
This struck me as a bit odd when I first read it, because I remembered that Ronnie Belliard had come to the Indians at the start of the 2004 season with a reputation as a good-but-not-great player, both offensively and defensively, and was generally viewed by Indians fans and outsiders alike as a one or two year stop-gap player, allowing management to let young Brandon Phillips develop at his own pace in becoming the Tribe's "second baseman of the future."
All Belliard had done since then was to surprise and delight most everyone with his bat, his glove, and his attitude, getting himself voted to the AL All Star team by his peers in 2004, while showing an ability to turn the double play at second as well as anyone in the league. His bat was better than anticipated too, since he had averaged only .251 over his last two seasons in the National League (2002-2003).
But hey, maybe Perry knew something I didn't know and Ronnie's game had declined in some way, unbeknownst to the fans who had watched him play 300 games or so over two seasons. I figured a statistical look at the last four seasons would be enough to pick up on Perry's perceived "pattern of decline". To the numbers:
It was my sense that Belliard's offensive production had gone up, not down, since he came to Cleveland. That looks right.
Batting average:
2002: .211
2003: .277
2004: .282
2005: .284
RBI
2002: 26
2003: 50
2004: 70
2005: 78
Home Runs
2002: 3
2003: 8
2004: 12
2005: 17
Those are the big 3 offensive categories. Kind of looks like an incline so far. Maybe he meant stuff like...
Slugging percentage:
2002: .287
2003: .409
2004: .426
2005: .450
OPS (on base pct. plus slugging pct)
2002: .544
2003: .760
2004: .774
2005: .775
Perry's partially right...there IS a pattern. Maybe he meant a defensive decline:
Fielding pct.
2002: .975
2003: .973
2004: .981
2005: .981
Nope.
One has to dig for "declines" in Belliard's statistics over the last four years, but there are a couple to be found. In 2004, for example, Belliard ripped an amazing 48 doubles, fifth overall among all major league players. He "regressed" last season to a mere 36 doubles, still ranking him in the top 20% of all major league second basemen. Belliard also walked less in 2005 (35) than in 2004 (60), and because of that, his on base percentage dropped from .348 to .325. This is at least partially explained by the fact that Belliard is an aggressive hitter under the best of circumstances, and last year, when the Indians lineup was struggling mightily, the impulse for Belliard to be impatient at the plate had to be greater than ever.
Ronnie Belliard is 30 years old, just entering his prime as a player, according to the conventional wisdom. The numbers obviously refute the notion of any ongoing decline in his game over the last four years. And Perry could not possibly have been referring to any attitudinal or off-field issues with Belliard. Anyone who has watched him play the past two seasons knows that nobody hustles more, or plays with more spirit and energy than Ronnie does. Perry might have predicted a future decline for Belliard, perhaps even one beginning this season, and thereby retained some credibility, ( to say nothing of avoiding this humiliating trip to the woodshed by Wizblog.) Instead it seems like he just made some stuff up.
Dayn, I gotta know. What were you thinking about?
Posted by dan at March 28, 2006 8:36 PM