Wizblog

Connected to this discussion is that there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of evidence to indicate that independents are breaking decisively away from every candidate who happens to belong to the GOP. The special election in the 2nd Congressional District is a prime example. In looking at the voting patterns throughout the district, Schmidt's poor showing seems primarily to have been a case of disenchanted conservative voters not caring (or not caring enough) to turn up at the polls, while energized erstwhile Kerry supporters came out in unusual numbers for Paul Hackett. It wasn't that former Bush voters were now choosing Hackett. Rather, many of those Bush voters just stayed at home. Indeed, when opinion polls force respondents to choose between two candidates for a particular office (as opposed to favorable-unfavorable ratings, or allowing respondents to reply "undecided"), GOP candidates are holding up quite well. This is not to deny that Democrats have the potential to win a majority of statewide races next year, and they may well field an exceptionally strong slate at governor, attorney general and auditor, but Taft's negatives have been high even among Republicans from the moment he won reelection. The ethical scandals surrounding Taft may have less of an impact on the GOP ticket generally than is currently supposed. (Of course, the eventual outcome of the investigation into Larry Householder may well taint the party far more than the Taft scandals, but that remains to be seen.)