Wizblog

Nearly Spring

The slow season in sports, consisting of the next month, will be only briefly interrupted by the Super Bowl, and if history is any guide, after two weeks of Super-hype we'll be screaming to get The Game over with. Beyond that the landscape is pretty bleak for a while. Yes, there is LeBron, and a Cleveland team in first place is something to take note of, but it is at times like this, when the snow is a foot deep, that a man's thoughts turn to baseball.

The urge to engage in some Triblogging was prompted somewhat by Terry Pluto's column today, in which he expresses his belief that the Indians could win the Central Division, if new acquisitions Kevin Millwood and Juan Gonzalez both come through with good seasons. Pluto also admits those are big "ifs". I also saw the White Sox projected starting lineup today, and thought to myself "we're better than that." Of course it's the Twins that we'll have to beat to win the Central, and while they've lost Corey Koskie and Christian Guzman (addition by subtraction, I'm afraid) they still have great young position player talent, and a solid 1-2 punch in starters Santana and Radke. But I'm ahead of myself.

Indians G.M. Mark Shapiro knows that people remember his prediction (promise?) three years ago that the team would "contend" by 2005. We had shed Manny Ramirez, Bartolo Colon and Jim Thome, and the amazing streak of home sellouts was becoming a memory. Shapiro had stocked the farm system with great prospects and had traded for several more, but the team was too young to win anything. Despite the obviously bright futures of players like Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Phillips, they remained "futures".

Shapiro wisely resisted rushing his young talent to the big leagues and stockpiled even more young players over the last two years, figuring he'd fill in with stopgap players like Lawton and Blake, and squeeze a year or two more out of Vizquel, while the kids grew up. The problem has been that the kids just keep on coming, and the clock has been running out on Shapiro's timetable of contending in '05. The team won 80 games last year, but was still pretty green. So while the Youth Program is not exactly over, Shapiro can no longer justify playing rookies, no matter how promising they may be, by saying "we're not going to win the pennant anyway". It's time to try like hell to win one.

Every move the club has made this offseason has been geared toward getting older and deeper. And I can't argue with that. Much. In addition to signing the aforementioned Gonzalez and Millwood, he went out and signed veterans Alex Cora and Jose Hernandez for the middle infield, and traded for Arthur Rhodes for the bullpen. He brought in Aaron Boone for some reason that I am still trying to figure out. He went "old" for his closer by bringing back Bob Wickman, and is counting on another veteran lefty, Scott Sauerbeck, to come back from injury to help the pen as well.

Here's where I must admit my engrained bias for promising young players over the older known entities. I have been conditioned I guess, by years of following a team which lacked a satisfying "present", to live in the more appealing perception of a glorious future. Richie Scheinblum, Vic Davillio, Charlie Spikes, Joe Charboneau, Von Hayes, Cory Snyder. Each one was destined to be the Next Big Thing. I pick those examples strictly to garner the reader's sympathy. Or empathy, as the case may be. All Tribe prospects don't turn out to be flops. Many in fact go on to play for postseason glory for fans in other cities. Dennis Eckersley, Joe Carter, and Manny spring immediately to mind. To wrack my brain for others is masochistic. And of course, the "present" was not always unsatisfying. We had a great run in the late 90's complete with multiple World Series, an All-Star Game and lots of heart-stopping, memorable moments. All of which though, merely highlights the really important number. 1948.

No doubt Shapiro will look like a genius if Juan "Back Spasms" Gonzalez drives in 100 runs and helps the Indians win the Central. But the possible casualty of that signing is the first full big league season for Grady Sizemore. And that would be a real shame. Sizemore finished the 2004 season on a tear, and looks to be The Next Big Thing a star waiting to happen. I was convinced last September that he had played his last minor league game.

Crisp has earned a starting outfield job, and he's our best shot at a legitimate leadoff hitter. And the Boone signing forces Casey Blake out to the outfield, where he's never played in his career, and forces Sizemore to AAA Buffalo where he has absolutely nothing to prove. The fact that Brandon Phillips will probably also be headed to Buffalo bothers me only slightly less, but it's silly to try to argue that re-signing Ronnie Belliard was a bad move, after the year he had in '04. I hope Phillips stays with the organization long enough to become our starting second baseman by 2006. Too much talent is a unique situation for the Cleveland Indians. We'll live with it.

The original concept of this post (yes, there was one) was to speculate on the batting order for the team as we assume it will be constituted on Opening Day, along with their 2004 hitting stats. Here goes:

Coco Crisp CF --- .297, 15 HR, 71 RBI
Ronnie Belliard 2B --- .282, 12 HR, 70 RBI
Juan Gonzalez RF --- .276, 5 HR, 17 RBI (33 games)
Victor Martinez C --- .283, 23 HR, 108 RBI
Travis Hafner DH --- .311, 28 HR, 109 RBI
Casey Blake LF --- .271, 28 HR, 88 RBI
Ben Broussard 1B --- .285, 17 HR, 82 RBI
Aaron Boone 3B --- .267, 24 HR, 96 RBI (2003)
Jhonny Peralta SS --- .326, 15 HR, 86 RBI (AAA)

If Boone's knee isn't healthy enough to go in April, put Blake back at third, Sizemore in center, Crisp in left. You could make the case to switch to any combination of the 3-4-5 hitters. I actually think Martinez is more of a natural #3 hitter (high average, hits to all fields, switch hitter, some power) but he performed so well at cleanup last year, it's tough to go away from that.

6, 7, and 8 are also nearly interchangable. You want to hit Broussard between Blake and Boone just to break up the two righties. And Belliard also led off a lot last year. Crisp could end up ninth. I think Peralta will eventually be a top-of-the-order hitter, but Wedge will protect the 22 year-old from pressure this year.

With Gerut out, I guess the rest of the position players are Bard, Cora, Hernandez, and Ludwick. (Give me Sizemore over Ludwick as the 4th outfielder any day)

When I look at it, I'm impressed by the potential of that bottom third of the order. You've got the 2004 AAA International League MVP hitting 9th. Peralta hit .326 and nearly won the batting title. He's a line drive hitter who will develop more power with age. With all the lefty starters we face in the Central (KC, Chi, Minn) it's good that we have a lot more pop from the right side of the plate this year than we did at the start of last season. In '04 it was mostly Belliard and Blake (and switcher Martinez). By adding Boone, Gonzalez and Peralta to the everyday linep (plus Ludwick), we'll wear out some of those lefthanders. It looks like we'll have no soft touches in that batting order. The bench is much improved. The bullpen is way better than last April. The starters are as good as any group in the division, with only the Twins coming close.

No predictions till April Fool's Day, but I'm officially jazzed.

UPDATE 1/26: I just added the hitting stats to the lineup above, and WOW, it's fun to imagine the offensive potential of this team.

Doubly jazzed.

Posted by dan at January 25, 2005 09:34 PM