Wizblog

Free Browns Analysis...And Worth It

It was a weekend of scintillating football games, but today's Browns win was not one of them. What it was was a decisive road win for a team that had exactly zero road wins this year going in. It was a victory for the team that wanted it more, outplayed the opponent, and appeared to have the more talented group of players on the field. That has been a rare confluence of events in 2004 for the Browns. The upside to being 3-12 going into the game is that there's not much to be nervous about, for fans anyway, so it was great to just sit back and savor a victory like we haven't done since the opening win over Baltimore. And breaking the nine-game losing streak in the last game of the season, and doing it the way the Browns did it, put all sorts of issues into doubt that had seemingly been all but decided before the game.

Most of the smart money had Kelly Holcomb gone to free agency after this year, but I would say there's now a decent possibility that the new managament team will decide he's our best shot to win games in 2005. They may well decide to try and sign him with a promise that he'll have one year as the starter to show he can be a competent NFL QB. At least that's what I think they should do. Not so much because I think the team can ever win big with Holcomb, but because the alternatives are so unappealing. I'm also guessing that the line of teams forming to talk with a free-agent Holcomb about making him their starter will be a short one, and a starting opportunity is all he really wants.

Garcia is owed a bunch of money for 2005, and that's the biggest factor that may keep him here, although Randy Lerner has shown a willingness to eat huge amounts of contract liability to be rid of people he considers mistake hires. Garcia will be nothing but a year older and slower next season, and I'm afraid that's a story with no possible happy ending. Luke McCown is clearly not ready for the bigtime, and drafting another young quarterback with a top ten draft selection would be lunacy for a team with so many other screaming needs.

Gerard Warren had a great game today, and has played well in the last four or five games. I hope that his negative image among fans doesn't encourage the new regime to get rid of him. The defense is fairly solid when you put Daylon McCutcheon and Andra Davis back on it, along with Sean Jones, Chris Crocker and a draft pick or two. Warren and his D-line mates completely dominated the game today, and even if we do spin off the disappointing Courtney Brown next year, that unit is one of the bright spots for 2005.

Another question now is if Terry Robiskie has made himself a serious candidate for the Head Coach position with today's win. Even though I have serious doubts that he's the right guy, he deserves a fair hearing. By already having named him a "finalist" for the position, and by naming him Interim Head Coach in the first place, surely the team has satisfactorily addressed the concerns of the NFL's affirmative action monitors. At least they won't be put in the position of the Miami Dolphins who put their annointed candidate Nick Saban on hold for a week while they brought in Art Shell for an awkward-looking, obligatory interview. Kudos to Shell by the way, for doing this for the league and the team. Who would have blamed him for telling them to stuff it (and who knows how many others did?) since the outcome was so clearly already determined?

I am not implying that Lerner and the Browns would evaluate Robiskie on any basis other than his coaching merits, just commenting on the current reality of NFL political correctness. I think and hope that the NFL is rapidly approaching the day (already reached by the NBA) when they are beyond this league-mandated race-consciousness. It is in the interests of owners and franchises to win games, and so more qualified black coaches who can win games will eventually be hired to do that, (and fired when they stop doing that). All that said, I would be surprised if Robiskie got the job, but nobody would even be asking the question if the Browns hadn't won the game today.

I also think today's win was important for how it will affect the search for a general manager and a head coach. Winning an NFL game today, a road game no less, changes the look of this team from one careening off a cliff and yet to hit the bottom, to one that simply had an unfortunate nine game losing streak in mid-season. In other words, it's not a five-year project to turn things around. The new man essentially adds two 1st round picks and two 2nd rounders to the 2004 team with Winslow and safety Sean Jones coming back from injuries. The 2004 Chargers proved that a major upgrade at offensive line can turn a bad team into a good one in one year.

I admit I've been accused of wearing the rose-colored glasses from time to time, and my nature in most things is as a glass-half-full type of guy. But I don't think this team is that far away from being a .500 team or even a marginal playoff team. Hear me out. I've discussed the defensive side of the ball a bit, and retaining Campo as coordinator of the defense in 2005 seems like a no-brainer to me. Our talent at cornerback with Henry and McCutcheon is solid if unspectacular, and we have discovered capable backups in Sanders, Bodden and Lehan. The D-line is good, as stated before, and if Andra Davis comes back strong, the linebacking is solid as well. Draft safeties and outside backers. (Antrell Rolle?)

We're two guards and two tackles away from having a decent offensive line. Stop laughing. Faine, Verba and Tucker are good veteran players. Add two linemen in free agency and throw a couple of high round draft picks into the fire early to take their lumps as soon as possible. Draft a left tackle high (1st), move Verba to left guard and sign a free agent right guard. Fill in with other high draft picks. Done.

After the pedestrian Holcomb (or Garcia), our skilled position talent is passable, assuming Winslow Jr. and Andre Davis return. Better line play and a fresh offensive concept are the two most important components to a return to respectability for this team. (The latter issue is the reason I don't personally favor Robiskie's return as head man.) We're good at tight end (Winslow, Heiden, Shea) and OK at running back (Suggs, Green, Echimandu). Receivers Bryant, Northcutt, Davis, Alston, and Frisman Jackson don't keep defensive coordinators awake nights, but they're not slouches either. Upgrade the WR position down to the 4th and 5th guy, and try for a late-round sleeper.

As to the draft, I would try to pick up an extra 3rd or 4th rounder by trading down, but not out of the top ten picks. (No team would be dumb enough to give up a 2nd round pick just to move up a slot or two in the first round. would they?) Then use the pick on the best offensive tackle available. This should not be difficult for the new G.M. to figure out. Say, Jammal Brown of Oklahoma or Alex Barron of Florida State? I could see opting for a defensive player that might appear too good to resist with that first pick (the aforementioned Rolle from Miami, Derrick Johnson of Texas, or Erasmus James of Wisconsin?) as long as the next two or three picks, and the free agency emphasis, is on offensive linemen. Next in order of my preference would be picks at safety (Dustin Fox?), cornerback, linebacker, wide receiver. There will certainly be seductive skill-position talents available at the top of the draft where we're sitting right now (USC's Mike Williams, Michigan's Braylon Edwards, Texas' Cedric Benson and the two Auburn RB's) but we have to resist, and perform the unglamorous chore of adding some top-flight OL talent to this team.

First lets get on with hiring a guy who knows what that looks like.

UPDATE 1/3: Oops. Not sure what I was thinking about when I said "Garcia is owed a bunch of money for 2005". Yes, the team will have a salary cap hit for the 2005 portion of his salary plus a portion of the signing bonus, but of course NFL contracts are not guaranteed for players who don't make the final roster for whatever reason.

Posted by dan at January 2, 2005 09:33 PM