Wizblog

Musing on Hillary '08

A comment to another post by my nephew Al got me thinking about Hillary Clinton's chances to be nominated and/or elected in 2008. After I got halfway through my email reply to him I decided to just post it here:

You asked if Hillary could get enough support to win the nomination in '08. I'm sure that that she could be nominated, and in fact I think she's the consensus frontrunner. There are lots of obstacles in her way, but she is very resourceful and is adored by the media elites. I won't go so far as to suggest that she was popping corks on champagne bottles Tuesday night (I think she's too much the ideologue to have been truly wishing for a Bush victory) but a Kerry loss fits her dream career scenario perfectly. I do think that while she could get the nomination, she may still be unelectable. Her "negatives" are still in the high 40's in polls nationally (last time I saw one). But that's now, in 2004. I think she's counting on four more years to allow memories to fade some more. Most people have already forgotten how we came within a few votes in the then Democrat-controlled House of Representatives of passing her brainchild, a government run health care plan, which would have socialized one seventh of our entire economy. Folks would also have to forget the cattle futures windfall, the Rose law firm records, the illegally convened health care task force, the unseemly travel office firings, and a few other odds and ends.

On the plus side, I think she has been responsible and sensible on the War on Terror, and she has not criticized the president with nearly the same level of vitriol we've seen from some of her colleagues. She has quietly and quickly built a Senate power base, and has positioned herself well to the right of the Kerry-Pelosi-Kennedy wing of her party. And let's face it. She's got experience being President. (I definitely think it helps explain her understanding and seriousness on the terror threat.) That's a significant qualification that sets her apart as a candidate. But it's my personal feeling that if you scratch her, she still bleeds socialist, because that's where she's always been from. Who knows if she has really moderated her core views? She doesn't talk to the media. Her people still control the Democratic Party apparatus. It was all Clintonistas (Carville, McCurry et al) who rode to the rescue of the Kerry campaign a few weeks ago, boosting out Bob Shrum and the other top Kerry advisors. Having lost the election, the DNC power won't shift over to Kerry people. It's still the Clintons' party.

The other thing that jumps out at me anytime there's talk of Hillary running for President is the fact that, as long as she's still married, electing Hillary would be putting Bill Clinton back in the White House, and I'm not sure the majority of the American people will ever choose to let that happen. In fact, if the same elite opinion holds in 2008 as held sway in 1992, the Democrats and the media will gush about the special package deal we would get. Co-Presidents they called it back then, and Hillary assumed control over much of the domestic policy-making apparatus and had more than nominal oversight of the Justice Department, without so much as a ballot being cast for her or an appointment being made. Huge power with zero accountability. Nice work if you can get it. Sort of like Kofi Annan when you think about it. Would Americans in 2008 be eager to take advantage of the manifest intellectual gifts and incredible career experience of the President's spouse, and hand him a significant unelected, unappointed policy-making role? I'm doubting it.

If Bill comes along as part of the package in 2008, I don't think it'll fly, even guessing four years out. Because I don't think most Americans will forget the perjury, the obstruction of justice, the inaction on terror, the impeachment, the sexual imposition, the illegal Chinese campaign cash, the sleazy pardons, the smearing of inconvenient women, the disbarment, or the meaning of the word "is". Without the baggage, maybe Hillary could pull it off. She needs to lose the baggage, which of course causes a whole new set of problems. It would be hard enough to become the first woman President without trying to become the first single and divorced President as well. It's no small problem for her, but she's a smart lady.

Then there's the part about being a northeastern (don't split hairs) liberal Senator, a formula that the Democrats may someday realize doesn't work real well, though to her credit and unlike Kerry, Hillary has been taking care to build a Senate voting record she can run on instead of away from. It would be hard to fathom the Democrats of 2008 agreeing on Hillary as their best shot at the White House, what with the "Bill Factor" and all, not to mention the polarizing and divisive effect her candidacy would have on the nation. Right now I'm trying to think of a red state she could carry.

If she does decide to run (though I think ultimately she will not) I'd like to help out with a campaign slogan. I've suggested it before, but I still think it has promise:

"Hillary For President - Let's Get Back the Silverware"

UPDATE 11/6: Jonathan Freedland in London's Guardian weighs in on Hillary's suitability for the Democratic ticket in 2008.

Posted by dan at November 5, 2004 09:41 PM